Overview of the Operational Impacts of the Kakhovka Dam Breach

Oct 30, 2023

Intelligence Analyst I, Weather and Environment Team

Intelligence Analyst III, France

Intelligence Analyst I

At approximately 02:00 June 6, the Kakhovka dam was breached. The large dam on the Dnipro River supplies water to much of southern Ukraine. It is part of a Soviet-era hydroelectric power plant that Russian forces seized in February 2022 and later disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid.

The precise level of the breach at the dam has not been confirmed; however, imagery reveals multiple meter sections are washed away and will have major impacts aside from the flooding and associated evacuations and disruptions caused by the heavy discharge of water into the lower reaches of the Dnipro River. The destruction appears intentional to prevent Ukrainian forces using the road over the dam as part of their counteroffensive and also to make crossings further downstream more treacherous; however, there are other wider impacts that may arise from the dam breach.

Military Implications of the Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam

It is unconfirmed whether Russian forces were responsible for the destruction of the dam and hydroelectric power station, early on June 6, however, the leaders of NATO and the EU have blamed Moscow for the event. In military terms, there would be no benefit to Ukraine in the dam's destruction and consequent flooding, only disadvantages. The effect of the floodwater will limit Kyiv's options in planning the expected offensive, as the inundated areas around the lower Dnipro River will act as a barrier to any large-scale troop movements. The humanitarian operation, including the evacuation of Kherson region residents, will likely distract Ukrainian troops and logistic hubs from preparing for any offensive. For Russian forces, the dam's destruction will reduce the requirement for defensive forces in the Kherson region, as the damage will prevent or slow any Ukrainian advance. There may be longer-term negative consequences for Moscow: the reservoir supplied water to Russian-occupied Crimea, and the attributed destruction of the dam may be considered a war crime, both of which may have strategic military implications for Russia.

Water Supply to Crimea

The North Crimea Canal draws water from the Kakhovka Reservoir and passes through Kherson Region and then via a pipeline to parts of Crimea. The canal was closed in 2014 following the Russian annexation of Crimea. Prior to 2014, the canal provided 85 percent of Crimea's water. The canal was reopened by Russian forces in March 2022 following their occupation of Kherson region. The breach of the dam may lead to water levels dropping in the canal. It is unclear how much Crimea has since been relying on the pipeline for water supply and the residents have no doubt become accustomed to relying on other sources of water supply during the years of closure; however, given the widespread drought concerns that have been witnessed across many parts of Europe in recent months and years, any cut in water supply will almost certainly be felt by affected populations. If water scarcity occurs, authorities could issue water rationing measures and intermittent service interruptions.

Energy Concerns

The dam is part of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Operators at the plant stated that the station has been completely destroyed and cannot be restored. This will likely have a major impact on power supply across the region and lead to outages in surrounding areas. The reservoir also provides cooling water to the nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated that there is no immediate nuclear safety risk at the power station due to the dam breach and there are alternative water sources which can be used if the reservoir falls below the required 12.7 meters to pump water upstream to the plant, including a large cooling pond near the site. However, some reduction in production capacity at the power station is possible due to the cooling water supply issue and alternative sources could be finite and therefore not a long-term solution should the reservoir stay below 12.7 meters for an extended period of time.

Longer-term Issues

The reservoir reached peak levels in April during the spring flood season and June is one of the rainiest months of the year in Ukraine. This means the reservoir was relatively full of vital water supplies ahead of the drier summer months of July and August. Depending on how much water is lost due to the breach, even should the dam be repaired it is likely that the key reservoir will remain well below normal levels for many months. While the reservoir is vast, this still could result in water supply issues across the region. As mentioned, this is likely to be especially critical during the drier months ahead without much precipitation to restore levels. Farmers in surrounding communities depend heavily on the dam for the irrigation of crops and we are also heading towards peak wildfire season, where water supplies are crucial in fighting the blazes.

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