How Do The Relays Of The Men's NCAA Title-Contending Teams Stack Up Against Each Other?

Nov 09, 2024

SwimSwam commenter Willswim asked if someone could put together a side-by-side comparison chart for Texas, Cal, Florida, and Indiana and the answer was yes, we can. As Willswim said, there’s a lot of movement—it’s early in the season, teams are still trying to figure out their optimal lineups, and some of the top swimmers that will factor into these relays (Destin Lasco, Matt King, Adam Chaney, etc.) haven’t swum a meet yet this season. But, we’ve given it our best shot at predicting what the relay lineups will look like.

We’ve tried to dig up the fastest relay split by each swimmer but if you know of a faster one than what’s listed, let us know. To make the lineups, we relied on the quartets that teams have already fielded this season but also made educated guesses about where swimmers like Lasco, King, and Chaney, will slot in based on past performances. We’ve adhered to the maximum of four relays for each swimmer, though we’ve noted where someone may drop an individual to swim all five relays.

Finally, as ASU is leading the NCAA in four out of the five relays this season, we’ve added them to the mix. They have an uphill battle to remain in the top five this season, but the speed their relays have shown this season will go a long way towards making that happen.

Tables are organized fastest to slowest, left to right. Relay splits are highlighted. Flat start times are blank and noted with (FS).

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For our purposes, the 200 freestyle relay is a straightforward exercise. Florida, the NCAA record holders, and defending champions, are the fastest of the favorites. With an add-up of 1:13.47, Josh Liendo, Adam Chaney, Julian Smith, and Ed Fullum-Huot check in just .12 seconds from the NCAA record the Gators set in 2023.

For all the talk about what ASU lost in the off-season, their 200 freestyle relay looks to have improved. They finished 3rd at the 2024 NCAA Championships with a 1:13.95, two-hundredths slower than their add-up this season. That’s largely due to Ilya Kharun popping an 18.59 at ASU vs. NC State, but adding transfer Tommy Palmer certainly helps as well.

This relay is a good example of how important the addition of Chris Guiliano is for Texas. They’re still the fourth-fastest of the favorites—a list that does not include NC State or Tennessee, two strong teams in this race—but Guiliano lights up their sprint corps and puts them right in the middle of the sprint freestyle action. Without him, their sprint relays suffer, which likely keeps them out of the conversation for the NCAA title.

Instead, this relay becomes Indiana’s weak spot. The Hoosiers could lead off with Matt King, who has broken 19 seconds before, but his 18.96 lifetime best is still way behind the lead-off swimmers of the rest of the programs. With programs shifting towards using their fastest swimmers to lead off, that relay leg becomes even more crucial or Indiana will spend the rest of the relay fighting through the wave.

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The 400 freestyle relay, the last event of the NCAA Championships, is always a free-for-all. The swimmers are tired after a long meet and giving everything they have left. So, it’s unlikely that we’ll see Cal soar as far under the 2:43.40 NCAA record that their add-up suggests. But, with an on-paper time of 2:42.95, .45 seconds under ASU’s record from last season, shows how clearly they are the favorites in this relay.

Guiliano on the Texas relay launches them into the mix with ASU, as their add-up times are five-hundredths apart. Indiana recovers in this relay from other pure freestyle sprint relay with another 2:45-point add-up. They’ve got options as to whether they lead-off with King or Miroslaw, too. Similarly, Texas could lead-off with Hobson and have Guiliano on a flying start, though a Guiliano lead-off is probably their best option.

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The 800 freestyle relay is perhaps the most chaotic of the five relays, made even more so because so few teams have swum the race this season. It also seems to be the relay that fans most want to see Guiliano on, though interestingly, adding Guiliano doesn’t put the Longhorns ahead of the Cal, the NCAA record holders. Once again, the Golden Bears’ add-up is faster than the NCAA record as the check in with a 6:01.44, .82 seconds ahead of the 6:02.26 they swam last year.

Texas needs Guiliano to swim three individual events, so they’ll need to leave him off a relay. There’s no shortage of 200 freestylers on the Longhorns roster, though right now it looks like their best move is to leave him off the 400 medley relay as exchanging Guiliano for Hubert Kos adds almost two seconds to their add-up.

Guiliano’s arrival makes the fight for a spot on this relay that much closer—right now, Rex Maurer and Coby Carrozza are the best options, though it’s easy to imagine Aaron Shackell contending for a spot. Kos will likely be on the 200 medley relay earlier that session, though could pull the double.

This is arguably the relay where Florida feels the loss of Macguire McDuff the most. Unless one of their swimmers breaks through in the 200 free this year, they’ll either need to punt on this relay (which they can’t do if they want the overall NCAA crown) or use Josh Liendo. Liendo’s been as fast as 1:32.16; while they won’t be in the hunt for the 800 freestyle relay title, that would keep them in the mix for a top 8 with an add-up of 6:08.58. That means they’d likely take him off the 200 medley relay and sub in Scotty Buff, which they did at the 2024 SEC Championships.

Without Kharun or Jonny Kulow, this relay is ASU’s major weak spot; even one 1:34-split won’t cut it in a world where having a 1:32-high split puts a team out of contention for the event’s NCAA title. That said, less than an hour ago ASU did use Kulow on as the 800 free relay anchor at the ASU vs. Cal vs. Stanford tri-meet. He split 1:33.66, teaming with Sammon (1:32.86 lead-off), Tiago Behar (1:33.69), and Filip Senc-Samardzic (1:32.97). That likely confirms his place on this relay; meaning he’ll either be pulled off another one or only swim two individual events. Putting Kulow’s 1:33.66 and Senc-Samardzic’s new fastest split on the relay drops the Sun Devils to 6:10.71.

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Florida is the top seed whether or not they use Liendo here. Granted, his 18.97 50 fly split, the second-fastest in history, is hard to leave off a relay; with it, the Gators’ add-up is 1:20.34, .19 seconds from their NCAA record.

The Gators’ lead narrows with Buff on butterfly instead of Liendo, as their 1:21.34 with Buff is just .08 seconds ahead of ASU’s add-up. Plus, ASU’s add-up is soft, Lucien Vergnes is getting faster with each meet as he gets more comfortable in yards, and Kharun just fired off a 19.1 50 fly split—it seems likely he’ll join Liendo and Jordan Crooks with a sub-19 second split sooner rather than later.

Yamato Okadome is also getting used to yards in Berkeley and in the meantime, he’s posting intriguing breaststroke times that could move Cal up from their fourth-place standing among these five teams.

For Indiana, it may turn out that their international freshman, Olympian Miroslav Knedla, draws onto this relay (as well as the 400 medley relay). However, at this moment, he doesn’t have the fastest lead-off on the team.

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Getting disqualified in this relay at last year’s NCAA Championships hurt the Gators’ bid to upset Cal for second place. They are the favorites in the event this year, and they have options here too. Julian Smith swam two individual events at NCAAs last year and could do the same again. That would let Florida pick up seven-hundredths on this relay, improving their add-up from 2:58.80 to 2:58.73. Though Chaney has been faster than Jonny Marshall in the 100 back, it should be fastest for them to use Marshall on backstroke and slide Chaney to freestyle.

Cal sits about a second behind Florida, followed closely by Indiana. They are the three teams of this group with an add-up that’s sub-3:00. Okadome could end up on this relay for Cal, though currently Matt Jensen has the fastest 100 breaststroke.

If this is indeed the relay that Texas opts to leave Guiliano off, it’s likely they turn to Luke Hobson. Hobson’s shown he can throw down competitive splits in the 50 and 100 freestyle, though of course putting in Guiliano’s lightning-fast 40.17 best split significantly improves the relay add-up. But even with Hobson, the 3:01.39 add-up is much quicker than the 3:02.44 they swam at the 2024 NCAAs for 8th place.